After entering September, the atmosphere of the Golden Nine peak season gradually became more intense, and corporate orders gradually increased. When the editor visited the market, I found that there was an endless stream of customers in the sales department of one company.
At the same time, the atmosphere in the polyester market is in full swing. Since September, the stable situation of polyester yarn has been broken, and prices have increased almost every day.
Obviously, the atmosphere of rising prices has stimulated the hearts of downstream weaving companies. Because it is the peak season, every move in the price of polyester yarns affects the profits of weaving companies. Under the current background, it is very difficult to increase the price of gray fabrics. Every price increase reduces profits.
Therefore, many bosses will be motivated to buy when news of price increases comes. So will the price of polyester yarns rise in the future?
Cost support is obvious
First of all, the editor expresses his attitude here. Polyester yarn will definitely rise again. The reason is very simple. Cost cannot stop the car. At present, the crude oil market has reached a new high point last week.
Brent crude oil is directly above $92. Such a strong attitude is inseparable from the support of international crude oil, which is supported by Saudi Arabia’s extension of additional production cuts, Russia’s firm stance on cutting supply, and the continued decline of U.S. commercial crude oil inventories.
Brent crude oil price chart
Looking at the PX side, first, due to the expected maintenance of the two sets of devices, the operating rate of the PX device has dropped by 10%-15%. Second, PX was listed on the market last Friday. In the atmosphere of market chasing prices, PX increased significantly.
Under this influence, as the price of the top raw material for polyester yarn has increased so much, it is expected that the polyester industry chain under PX will be driven, and polyester yarn cannot escape.
Inventory is relatively loose
Looking at the situation of polyester itself, due to the four surges in polyester production and sales in August, and since September, there have been two increases so far, so the overall polyester inventory is not high.
According to statistics from Silkdu.com, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated between 14-24 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 16-24 days, FDY inventory is around 14-23 days, and DTY inventory is around 14-24 days. About 12-23 days.
However, the current polyester load is still at a high level. After several times of increased production and sales, social inventory is at a high level. It is difficult to increase production and sales in the short term. Polyester inventories are expected to increase.
However, under the influence of large-scale activities, polyester factories are expected to reduce production. If once implemented, polyester prices will receive supply support while cost support, and the price increase will inevitably expand.
There is certain support for demand
Looking at the situation on the demand side, the current market atmosphere has indeed gradually picked up, which is significantly better than that in July and August. It is worth mentioning that many companies have reported that current orders have increased compared with last year, and even so far, the number of orders received has increased. Orders have exceeded last year’s total.
According to statistics, the inventory of gray fabrics in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was about 35 days during the week, which was slightly lower than last week. The main reason is that the market atmosphere has improved and weaving manufacturers are shipping appropriately.
However, during the research process, we can clearly feel that the foreign trade market has not recovered. Many companies that are mainly engaged in foreign trade believe that the market conditions this year are average, and there are even many companies that are transitioning into the domestic trade market to get a sip of soup.
As the saying goes, 30% domestic trade and 70% foreign trade. Compared with domestic trade, which has lower profits, foreign trade orders tend to have higher profit values. Therefore, only when internal circulation drives external circulation, the vitality of the market can be stimulated again. Even so, the rise in the overall market atmosphere has also provided certain support for polyester price increases.
To sum up, there is no doubt that the price of polyester yarn will rise in the short term. However, since weaving companies have completed stocking up this week, the price increase of polyester yarn next week may not be that large, and the main purpose is to maintain stability.
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