There is a gust of wind in the “peak season”, and he will leave after blowing it… In the next few years, there may not be “Golden Nine, Silver Ten”
It is now the end of October, and the traditional “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” are about to pass. Looking back at the market conditions in September and October, the market performance is exactly the same as the peak season in the minds of many textile people. It can only be said that it is not at all. coherent.
Gold nine and silver ten are over now?
In the process of visiting the market in the past two months, a large number of textile companies said that from August to September, the situation of fabric orders did not improve significantly, and this situation continued into October. During one or two weeks, the textile people were indeed busy, but the busy time was short. As soon as everyone rolled up their sleeves and prepared to work hard, the market situation passed like a gust of wind.
In September and October of this year, there were very few large orders of hundreds of thousands of meters or hundreds of thousands of meters. Most of the textile companies received small orders of several thousand meters, and they could only make some hard money.
There is no shortage of orders for weaving companies, but the profit per meter of cloth makes the listeners sad and the listeners weeping. Even so, the price of raw materials continues to rise, and companies can only buy raw materials with tears in order to maintain production. , the selling price of gray cloth failed to rise, and finally the profits were repeatedly compressed.
In general, many textile people feel disappointed and helpless about this year’s Golden Nine and Silver Ten. October is almost over, but the peak season with high hopes feels no different from the previous months.
Two-level market
However, not all textile companies performed poorly in September and October. At the end of August, signs of two-level differentiation in the market peak season appeared, and this sign of two-level differentiation continued until 10 It’s the end of the month, and it seems like it’s going to keep going on forever.
This phenomenon is also easy to understand. No matter how bad the market is, there are always some textile companies with core competitiveness in the market that can do well. These companies either have technologies that others do not have or have special connections. , of course, there are also cases where you are simply lucky enough to catch the trend of hot-selling products. In short, there are some advantages that cannot be replaced by other textile companies in the market.
It’s just that the market was okay before, everyone was doing well and I was doing well, and everyone was making money, so they were not so prominent. But when the tide recedes, we will know who is swimming naked and who is the truly competitive company. For these companies, they don’t care at all whether it is a busy season or not. Anyway, there are always so many orders that they can never finish them.
According to the 80/20 rule, the proportion of such enterprises that are less affected by market fluctuations is always in the minority. For a large number of textile enterprises, the peak season has really disappeared.
The market has changed and so have the rules
Why did the peak season disappear? In the final analysis, the underlying logic of the market has changed.
With the development of information technology, the cost of information communication within the textile industry has been greatly reduced. Coupled with China’s continuous investment in infrastructure construction, logistics efficiency has increased, and the connections between various links in the industrial chain are closer than in the past. The textile industry has gone from high raw material inventory to The model is changing to the fast response model.
Even now, many textile companies are gradually opening up the entire industry chain. This is partly because textile companies now have a higher pursuit of quality. On the other hand, it is also because with the development of the industry, the cost of opening up the entire industry chain has become lower than in the past. A lot.
Of course, the fast reaction model is more targeted at domestic trade, and there are still many large orders for foreign trade, but everyone is deeply aware of the foreign trade situation this year.
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, from January to August this year, my country’s total exports of textiles and clothing reached US$197.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.0%. >.
Against the background of the rise of domestic trade and the reduction of foreign trade, the spot quick response model has gradually replaced the original bulk goods model. This new model dilutes the seasonality of the textile industry and can distribute orders roughly evenly throughout the year. During the peak sales season, small batches and multi-batch re-orders will increase. For example, in the middle of October, a large number of Double Eleven orders created a wave of hot spots in the market. But from the perspective of the textile enterprises themselves, this change has brought about the disappearance of the peak season.
Will the next peak season be gone?
With the development of the textile industry chain, in the field of domestic trade, the spot quick response model is obviously more popular with downstream clothing brands, while foreign trade is limited by logistics and dealers, so the applicability of the quick response model is not that strong. Therefore, the most important factor affecting whether there will be a peak season in the future is the external environment.��When can we support ourselves?
But the current situation is that not only does the global economy not show an improvement trend, but geopolitical conflicts have broken out intensively. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not ended yet, and the conflict between Palestine and Israel has intensified. Europe and the United States have fallen into high-interest inflation, and people’s consumption power has shrunk significantly. It is not expected to happen in the short term. Possibility of improvement.
But on the other hand, my country’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative is welcomed by more and more countries, and the share of textile exports to emerging markets is increasing year by year, and the future is very promising.
To sum up, in the next few years, the concept of textile peak season may become less and less, but this situation will not always exist. When foreign trade exports recover to a certain extent, the peak season may reappear.
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