October has passed, and this year’s “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” market has disappointed many textile people, especially foreign trade orders, which are even more pitiful against the background of weak external demand.
If we follow the situation in previous years, the textile market for the year has basically ended by now, but since this year’s market has been going against common sense, there may be some surprises in the coming time.
South Korea and Vietnam’s exports shine
The latest data released by South Korea Customs on Monday showed that the average daily shipments on the 10th and 20th month ago were higher than the same period last year8.6%, this data has achieved positive growth for the first time since September last year.
Vietnam’s textile exports have rebounded from the bottom of 5end3 billion billion. The order volume in the fourth quarter of 2023 has shown obvious signs of recovery. 8 Textile exports reached 3.4 billion, nearly 1111 span>The highest level in months, an increase of 5.5%, which is also the fourth consecutive month of positive month-on-month growth. Export activities to the United States have released signs of recovery, with exports in August reaching US$1.5 billion, a month-on-month increase. 2.3%.
If we look at the global economic environment, the economic downward trend in European and American countries has not been interrupted, problems such as inflation and debt have not been alleviated, and the daily life pressure of ordinary people is still very high. Therefore, the reason for the improvement in exports of South Korea and Vietnam It’s not an economic factor.
What is more likely is that because the market continues to be sluggish, large overseas clothing buyers such as large supermarkets, department stores, and clothing brands have been adopting a more conservative purchasing strategy this year, focusing on consuming inventory. Therefore, many textile bosses have reported that this year’s overall Foreign trade orders have declined significantly compared with previous years. However, this strategy is difficult to sustain forever. There will always be a time point when the library needs to be replenished, and this time point is likely to be the fourth quarter of this year.
If this wave of market conditions really comes, what impact will it have on textile companies?
Do you have an order, or a bulk order?
Let’s first review the overall situation of the market this year. Although weaving production capacity has grown rapidly in the central and western regions this year, and supply exceeds demand obviously, if we only look at the shipment volume of gray cloth, as long as the cloth price is low enough, the market will There is indeed no shortage of buyers.
Most of the fabrics purchased by these buyers flow into the field of fabric spot supermarkets, and most of the transactions are some conventional products. Because fabric spot supermarkets basically deliver goods on payment, they handle domestic orders and some foreign brand orders, which is different from traditional ones. Foreign trade bulk orders fall into two trading modes. Some of the products required for foreign trade may overlap with previously traded stocks, but they cannot be completely covered.
Therefore, in the fourth quarter of this year, the concentrated replenishment of foreign traders’ stocks is likely to produce a wave of textile prices. This part of the order is likely to be issued in the traditional bulk mode.
Chunjiang Plumbing Duck Prophet, recently many textile companies have focused on replenishing raw material inventories. On 10month29, polyester factory polyester filament The average production and sales rate is as high as 409.4%.
The landlord’s family has no food left.
But even if the market comes, textile companies cannot be happy too early.
In the past, most of the foreign trade customers paid promptly and made generous bids, which was very worry-free, but now the landlords have no food left. The current overcapacity problem in the textile market is very serious. Even if there are orders, it is not easy to grab these orders. Customers will also use the current buyer’s market to lower prices. It is difficult to say how much profit will be made in the end.
In addition, some textile companies have said that they will not accept new orders starting from late October this year. This is mainly because everyone does not have sufficient funds on hand this year, and payment collection generally takes longer than in previous years. In two months, if you receive new orders at this time, you will basically not be able to receive payment before the end of the year. This year’s end of the year may be difficult, so some textile companies may choose to give up orders due to the issue of payment time.
The most important thing is that even if the orders do come by then, it does not mean that the market has improved. It is just some compensation for the previous downturn. The overseas economic environment has not been fundamentally reversed, and it is difficult for foreign trade to bring sustained stability in the short term. needs.
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