Last week, as the temperature dropped, the market for winter clothing finally picked up. The gallbladder suddenly became popular, and the prices of some products suddenly rose from 1.8 yuan per meter. 2.5 yuan, the bosses made a lot of money, some dyeing factories also experienced liquidation, and the cloth bosses in the circle of friends were also happy. Upstream raw materials have also taken advantage of the situation to support their growth, rising instead of falling despite the continued downward trend in crude oil… Has the market really picked up?
fragmented market
There is a saying that without investigation, there is no right to speak. What you see online may not be correct. Many situations can only be confirmed by on-site visits.
First of all, the editor went to the dyeing factory that was reported online. It is true that the warehouse of the factory is not full, and there is a large amount of gray fabric waiting to be dyed piled at the entrance of the factory. Judging by the naked eye that it is several million meters of base, it can be seen that the business is indeed good.
But when visiting the market, the answers given by cloth bosses were different from what they expected. The editor asked 3 companies that deal with down jacket fabrics, and only one company said that the shipping situation has improved since the weather got colder, and some fabrics in stock in the warehouse have fallen out. , withdrew part of the funds.
Two other trading companies that make down jacket fabrics said that recent orders have not improved, especially foreign trade orders, which have shown no improvement at all. Only domestic trade has seen some demand, but it has also been divided up by the market.
What is the reason for such fragmented market performance?
Demand ≠ market
First of all, market demand does exist. The dyeing factory is a bellwether for the market. The editor also went to see its liquidation. After the temperature cooled down, the busyness of down jacket production and distribution centers such as Pinghu is not fake. The busyness of the trucks loading cloth on the road is not fake. It is true that the sales of down jackets, cold-proof jackets, and jackets on Double Eleven are higher than usual…
But in the current textile environment, demand and market conditions are no longer as equated as they were in the past.
The emergence of the market, in the final analysis, is a mismatch between demand and supply, supply exceeds demand, and product prices rise.
As the weather cools down, clothing companies used to buy fabrics in advance to stock up. Now they adopt the quick-return model. Once consumers place orders, clothing companies will follow up and buy fabrics.
Market demand emerges when the temperature drops, but cooling happens every year, and the types of fabrics needed after the temperature drop are similar every year. This year, weaving overcapacity is serious, and many experienced manufacturers have already begun to prepare for this in advance. Similar fabrics, coupled with the stocking of fabrics in supermarkets, the market has long been flooded with stocks of this kind of fabrics.
Therefore, the supply of fabrics in stock on the market at this stage can basically match the demand brought about by the cooling. However, the overflow demand that is not covered by the stock has also been divided up by the competition of a large number of textile companies in the market, and the situation of oversupply does not exist. No change occurred, and in the end it was just the inventory of one part was digested.
The victory of the “minority”
Although gallbladder cloth is the basic fabric, any factory can produce some, but ordinary manufacturers do not have much inventory. After all, this kind of cloth that everyone can make has no value in stocking according to common sense. Usually gallbladder cloth The profit is also low.
A large amount of gall cloth inventory on the market exists in the hands of several companies that specialize in gall cloth. In the past few years, the gall cloth market was in chaos, with big fish eating small fish, and most of the remaining companies were large companies.
In addition, the outer fabrics of these down jackets and jackets are all kinds of weird, with various functions and patterns, but most of the inner linings are made of gallbladder fabric. The demand for other fabrics is scattered, while the demand for gallbladder fabric is concentrated.
Once demand comes in the market, only they can supply enough cloth to the market and have the confidence to increase prices. And this wave of price increases means “if it doesn’t open for three years, it will last three years if it opens.”
The same is true for dyeing factories. There are only a few dyeing factories that make winter clothing fabrics, and their production capacity can cause an imbalance between supply and demand in the short term.
For downstream garment factories, even if it costs an extra four or five yuan per piece of clothing, as long as they can seize the market and finally sell the goods, the business will be profitable, so they can accept the increase. Money, when consumers buy a piece of clothing that costs only a few yuan, they don’t care much about the three or five yuan.
In the future, due to the huge amount of inventory and huge production capacity, even if demand comes, it will generally only create a little ripple, and it will be difficult to generate large-scale market conditions in the entire market. Only the ability to form supply and demand in the short term Only the mismatched “minority” can enjoy the greatest fruits.
To reverse this situation, we can only wait for a structural improvement in foreign trade demand.OK.
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