Since the beginning of this year, textile companies have been very cautious in purchasing raw materials. However, at the same time, polyester factories have shown no restraint in terms of supply. Not only have their loads been increased, but their production capacity expansion has also continued.
According to data, the new polyester production capacity nationwide is 9.45 million tons per year, and there are still plans to put the device into production at the end of the year. It is expected that the new production capacity for the whole year will be around 10 million tons. Among them, polyester filament has always been the largest expansion segment of the polyester industry.
Polyester load continues to be high
This has also led to the problem of mismatch between supply and demand in the polyester industry chain, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the polyester filament industry has become more prominent. According to statistics, the new domestic polyester filament production capacity in 2023 will total 4.42 million tons, and the production capacity base will be raised to 41.28 million tons. The current polyester production capacity has increased by 186.3% compared with 2010, with a compound growth rate of around 8.4%. The compound growth rate of polyester filament The rate is also nearly 8%, and the scale of polyester filament production this year accounts for 46.8% of the total polyester production.
Fortunately, although the overall load remains high, the load of new production capacity increases slowly. In the alternating operation of maintenance of old equipment and the commissioning of new production capacity, after the beginning of the new year, the load of the polyester filament factory is at most of the time. 85% status, so although the new domestic polyester filament production capacity will be as high as more than 4 million tons in 2023, the actual output in the first half of the year was 26.267 million tons, a 1.8% decrease from last year.
Production and sales continue to be sluggish
In sharp contrast to the ever-expanding production capacity is the sluggish production and sales. From the beginning of the year to the present, continuous tracking shows that in the past year, the number of days when production and sales exceeded 100 was only 20 days. The rest of the time, polyester production and sales were generally only 30 days. Between % and 70%, the most direct reason why weaving companies are cautious about purchasing raw materials is that the market is not good. Polyester is the basis of production for weaving companies. Once the market improves, purchases will definitely increase.
To be more specific, the market is one-sided. Weaving companies generally have too much inventory now. According to statistics from Silkdu.com, weaving companies’ gray fabric inventory should be more than 30 days old. How to digest the inventory is the main problem now; and in terms of orders, , companies are developing more small and sophisticated fabrics. The raw materials involved in these fabrics are generally custom-spun or special raw materials, and the quantities are not too large. Therefore, the current sluggish production and sales are reasonable.
So why do polyester factories need to expand their capacity?
The arrow is on the string and has to be fired
It seems that the polyester factory should not expand its production capacity, so why has it been put into production continuously in the past few years? In fact, from 2020 to 2024, it is estimated that the total number of polyester exit (pre-exit) projects nationwide is 3.57 million tons, of which 2.61 million tons of polyester filament exit projects, accounting for 73.1% of the total exit project scale. The polyester filament industry has taken the lead in starting a reshuffle. the prologue. In other words, the new capacity we see now is already a reduced version.
During the period from 2017 to 2018, many plans to put production capacity into production were approved, and the establishment of a polyester factory takes a long time. These projects have been completed one after another in recent years, which has resulted in the current situation of massive expansion of production capacity. But in fact, due to the many impacts of public health incidents and geopolitical crises in recent years, the market oversupply has become increasingly serious, and polyester factories are also very helpless.
Generally speaking, the expansion of polyester was a seed planted in the past few years, and it is only now having an impact on the market. In recent years, polyester profits have been significantly compressed, and the competitiveness of small and medium-sized enterprises has become smaller and smaller. In the past two years, It is often said that the textile market is undergoing a reshuffle, and the reshuffle of the polyester industry has actually begun silently.
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