Climatic conditions will affect cotton production in the mainland
Correspondent from China Cotton Network: Since the beginning of this century, my country’s inland cotton production and market circulation have been bumpy. So far, mainland cotton production has fallen to a historical low. After the introduction of the New Deal, the future layout of the cotton industry, especially in the mainland, has changed from a guidance type to a guidance type under market conditions. Everything involving the cotton industry is undergoing unprecedented changes. Some people predict that in recent years, some economically developed areas along the rivers and seas are likely to evolve into “cotton-free provinces”, and a century-old industry is likely to gather in the northwest and then spread across the country.
So, what is driving the decline of the mainland’s cotton industry? In recent years, everyone seems to be thinking about this issue. Market price fluctuations, increased production and marketing risks, low comparative efficiency, low mechanization, etc. Increased production and marketing risks are ranked first, which shows that the power of nature is really great. Indeed, taking the Jianghai basin area as an example, because the cotton growth period is during the summer and autumn periods when natural disasters such as wind, rain, hail, and insects in the Jianghai basin are prone to occur, disasters often attack the cotton growth period and destroy the harvest fruits. Therefore, mainland cotton farmers are afraid of strong winds and heavy rains when cotton is in full bloom, and they are worried about sudden tornadoes and typhoons when cotton is in full bloom. Cotton is described as “hanging in the sky and growing”, and the expectation of “God’s help” is very strong.
So, what are the pros and cons of climate on cotton areas? Let’s look at the “2016 Climate and Production Impact Analysis” jointly conducted by the agriculture and meteorological departments of Jiangsu Dafeng Cotton District. Understand the relevant situation in detail and provide assistance and guidance to create countermeasures and avoidance action plans.
The climatic conditions in 2016 were generally unfavorable for cotton growth in most areas along the rivers and seas, especially in the later period, which was particularly unfavorable for boll cracking. According to meteorological data analysis, the accumulated temperature of cotton in Dafeng and other cotton areas along the Yangtze River during the entire growth period (early April to late November) is 5065.1°C, which is 241.6°C higher than the same period in 2015 and 277.3°C higher than normal; the rainfall is 1433.2mm, which is less than the previous year. 150.6
mm, 522.3 mm more than normal years; there were 104 rainy days, 12 days more than 2015 and 27.4 days more than normal years; there were 1237.9 hours of sunshine, 102.5 hours and 333.4 hours less than the previous year and normal years respectively. From late September to late October, when cotton bolls burst, the rainfall was 393.2mm, which was 284.9mm and 319.9 more than the previous year and normal years respectively.
mm; sunshine was 111.1 hours, 177.4 hours and 142.8 hours less than the previous year and the same period in normal years respectively. There were 27 rainy days, 7 and 5.7 days more than the same period last year and normal years respectively.
It is hot and rainy during the sowing period, and the temperature is high during the seedling raising period. In late March 2016, the temperature was high and there was little rain. 35% of the cotton fields along the river and coastal areas had completed sowing by the end of March. The weather was mainly cloudy and rainy from April 1st to 7th, and most cotton fields began to sow on April 8th. After sowing, the weather improved and the sun was sufficient, so it was basically possible to sow all the seedlings in one go. The seedling emergence rate of 76% of the nutrient pot seedbeds in the region is over 90%, and the seedling emergence rates of the remaining seedbeds are also between 80% and 90%.
The transplanting period is characterized by low temperatures, little sunshine and lots of rain. In northern Jiangsu, 29.2mm of rain fell on May 15 last year, and the soil moisture was good. After that (late May to mid-June), there were multiple rainfalls, which was beneficial to the survival of cotton seedlings, but the low temperature and lack of sunshine were not conducive to the growth of cotton seedlings. .
The period from budding to early flowering is characterized by low temperatures, little sunshine and lots of rain. On June 18, 2016, Jianghai Mian District entered the plum rain season. Plum blossoms appeared on July 20. From late June to mid-July, for 30 days, the average temperature was 25.2°C, 0.3°C lower than normal; the sunshine hours were 94.3 hours, less than normal. 74.8 hours; rainfall was 462.2mm, 201.1mm more than normal. During the plum rains period, the temperature is low, the sunshine is less, and the rainfall is high, resulting in late cotton establishment and slow budding and flowering.
The temperature is high and the entire period from blooming to boll formation is high. The temperature began to rise in late July, and the climate improved. There were 52 days from late July to early September, with an average temperature of 28.3°C, 2.2°C higher than the same period in normal years of 26.1°C; 437.1 hours of sunshine, 68.1 hours more than 369 hours in normal years; and 44.7 hours of rainfall.
mm, 232.5 mm less than the normal 277.2 mm
mm. High temperature and sufficient sunlight are conducive to cotton budding, flowering and boll formation.
The harvesting period is cloudy and rainy with little sunshine. From mid-September to the end of October, the Dafeng cotton area was dominated by rainy weather, especially in the 41 days from late September to October 31, the rainfall was 393.2mm, which was 284.9mm and 319.9 more than the previous year and normal year respectively.
mm; sunshine was 111.1 hours, 177.4 hours and 142.8 hours less than the previous year and the same period in normal years respectively. There were 27 rainy days, 7 and 5.7 days more than the same period last year and normal years respectively. Continuous rainy weather and little sunshine have had an extremely negative impact on the maturation, floundering, picking and drying of cotton bolls in the later stages.
The annual data recorded above can show how deep the connection between open-air agriculture and meteorological conditions is. How to develop cotton production with good production conditions in the mainland and how to exploit its strengths and avoid weaknesses, and research and develop cotton to adapt to climate conditions. ��The beneficial points of conditions. However, due to its unique geographical and climatic conditions, Xinjiang has unique and superior conditions for the development of the cotton industry. Therefore, my country’s cotton industry layout may be moved westward with reference to and a combination of a large number of beneficial factors.
Natural selection. Although the mainland will not stop producing and selling cotton due to climate factors, cotton has existed along the coast of northern Jiangsu for a hundred years; Xinjiang will not be planted everywhere because of dry weather and little rain. As for cotton, the optimal allocation of cotton resources across the country is not better than targeting Xinjiang. The problem lies in grasping nature, selecting its advantages and discarding its disadvantages, allowing the planting industry to grow properly under sunshine, rain and dew, and ultimately developing the cotton industry economy to achieve the purpose of ensuring supply.
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