The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton yarns continues to narrow, and the price difference between China and Indonesian cotton yarns expands
This week, domestic cotton spot prices stabilized, Zheng cotton futures prices fell, and cotton yarn prices showed slight signs of recovery; international cotton prices The price of cotton in India and Pakistan continued to rise; the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton generally expanded, but the price difference with India and Pakistan was relatively narrow. The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton yarn continued to narrow, and the price difference between China and Indonesian cotton yarn expanded.
1. Price trend
(1) Cotton price
This week, domestic cotton spot prices stabilized, while Zheng cotton futures fell; international cotton prices fell overall, but Indian cotton prices continued to rise, and Pakistani cotton prices remained strong.
(2) Prices of cotton yarn and polyester staple fiber
This week, domestic cotton yarn prices have picked up, and polyester staple fiber prices have continued to fall; cotton yarn prices in India and Vietnam have continued to rise slightly, while cotton yarn prices in Pakistan and Indonesia have remained stable.
(3) Price difference
1. The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has generally expanded, but the price difference between India and Pakistan continues to narrow.
On January 13, the international cotton index (M) discounted RMB import cost was 14,491 yuan/ton (1% tariff, customs exchange rate, the same below), which was lower than the domestic standard of 1,167 yuan/ton. , the price difference expanded by 186 yuan/ton compared with last week; the import cost of domestic S-6 cotton in India was 13,931 yuan/ton at a discount of RMB 1,727/ton, lower than the domestic 1,727 yuan/ton, and the price difference narrowed by 508 yuan/ton compared with last week; Pakistan’s domestic standard-grade cotton was discounted by 13,931 yuan/ton. The import cost in RMB is 13,325 yuan/ton, which is lower than the domestic price of 2,333 yuan/ton, and the price difference is 131 yuan/ton narrower than last week.
2. The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton yarns continues to narrow, and the price difference between China and Indonesian cotton yarns expands.
On January 13, Vietnam’s 32-count carded pure cotton yarn was 22,610 yuan/ton (import cost discounted in RMB, the same below), which was lower than China’s domestic 32-count carded pure cotton yarn. 620 yuan/ton, the price difference is 16 yuan/ton smaller than last week; India’s 32-count carded pure cotton yarn is 23,053 yuan/ton, which is 177 yuan/ton lower than China’s domestic 32-count carded pure cotton yarn, and the price difference is larger Last week, the price decreased by 19 yuan/ton; Indonesian 32-count carded pure cotton yarn was 22,610 yuan/ton, which was 620 yuan/ton lower than China’s domestic 32-count carded pure cotton yarn, and the price difference expanded by 65 yuan/ton compared with last week. .
3. The price difference between domestic yarn and cotton and polyester and cotton has expanded.
This week, the domestic yarn and cotton price difference is 7,572 yuan/ton (32-count carded pure cotton yarn – 328B cotton price), an increase of 115 yuan/ton from last week; the polyester-cotton price difference is 7,383 yuan/ton tons (328B cotton price – polyester staple fiber price), an increase of 25 yuan/ton from last week. 2. Fundamental situation
Recently, the price of hand-picked cotton “Double 28” has been concentrated at 16,000-16,300 yuan/ton (official weight, the same below), and the price of machine-picked cotton 3129B is around 15,900-16,100 yuan/ton, which is imported from bonded warehouses. The price of cotton is slightly higher than that of real estate cotton. As of January 13, the national cotton sales rate was 57.7%. Downstream textile companies stocked up for the year and planned to extend the holiday. At the beginning of January, the national cotton industry inventory was about 643,000 tons, with a usage period of about 31.5 days, an increase of 1.4% month-on-month. The production and sales rate of yarn and cloth increased, and textile companies intended to reduce the cotton ratio.
From December 30 to January 5, the net contract volume of US cotton exports in 2016/17 was 53,500 tons, an increase of 29% from the previous week, and the shipment volume of upland cotton in 2016/17 was 4.77 million tons, a 17% decrease from the previous week. The progress of US cotton sorting is accelerating. The USDA monthly report predicts an increase in inventory and US cotton production. With the commercial purchase and storage of Indian cotton, cotton prices continue to rise; the Pakistani government launched export promotion policies, which stimulated Pakistan. Textile companies’ imports of foreign cotton; Vietnam’s domestic and foreign cotton yarn demand continues to grow, and cotton imports continue to increase.
3. Macroeconomic situation
CPI rose moderately in December, up 0.2% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year. PPI increased in December, rising 1.6% month-on-month and 5.5% year-on-year; at the end of December, broad money (M2) growth fell back, with a year-on-year growth of 11.3%, and the growth rate was 0.1 and 2 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the same period last year; the total import and export value of my country’s trade in goods in 2016 was 24.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%. Among them, exports decreased by 2% year-on-year, imports increased by 0.6% year-on-year, and the surplus was 3.35 trillion yuan, narrowing by 9.1%.
US President Trump did not mention tax cuts and infrastructure plans in his new press conference. The market was slightly disappointed with this press conference. The US dollar fell. US retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month in December, which was lower than…It was 0.7% in the previous month, but better than the previous value. The U.S. PPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month in December, in line with expectations, but lower than the previous value of 0.4%.
In summary, domestically, cotton supply is still abundant, textile companies have restocked before the year, and raw material inventories have increased. It is estimated that domestic cotton prices will continue to remain weak in the short term; internationally, although U.S. cotton export data It’s acceptable, but USDA has increased the supply of Indian cotton, and it is expected that international cotton prices will still face downward pressure in the short term.
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