The Indian cotton market “opened up” and Chinese buyers did not “follow the trend”
According to reports from foreign and domestic traders, Indian cotton FOB and CNF (CIF) quotations started to rise after Christmas. Although the amplitude was not large, compared with the end of December Around December 15th, the quotations of S-61-1/8〞, S-61-5/32〞 and other varieties increased by 0.20 cents/pound as a whole. Cotton farmers, ginners and exporters were increasingly optimistic about the bullish trend. high. On the one hand, although the Ministry of National Food Security and Research of Pakistan has made it clear that it will suspend duty-free imports of Indian cotton until all new domestic cotton is sold, which will suppress Indian cotton exports, the impact of the new monetary policy on the entire cotton and cotton textile industry chain is still In terms of fermentation, the domestic supply and export of cotton are not “satisfactory” (as of late December, India’s new cotton market volume has just exceeded 1.2 million tons, accounting for only about 20% of its estimated annual output), and contracts have been delayed or canceled. Not infrequently, periodic speculation is on the rise; on the other hand, India’s cotton yarn exports continue to pick up, especially with a strong rebound in China, Pakistan, Bangladesh and other countries. India’s domestic cotton consumption is bullish, and it is gradually realizing a shift from cotton exports to cotton yarn, Natural cotton exports “shifted gears”. According to statistics, in November 2016, China, Bangladesh, and Pakistan occupied the top three exporters of Indian cotton yarn, accounting for 39.8%, 12.7%, and 3.4% respectively. According to Chinese customs statistics, among them, Vietnamese yarn, Indian yarn, The proportions of Pakistani yarn are 37.53%, 17.4% and 16.6% respectively.
January shipping schedules for December 29 and 30 are Indian cotton S-61-5/32〞(28GPT), S-61-1/8〞(28GPT) and BCICotton1-1/8〞 (28GPT) quotations from the Far East main port are 77.02 cents/pound, 76.64 cents/pound and 77.95 cents/pound (CIF quotation); while the quotations of MCU531mm (30GPT) and MCU530mm (30GPT) for December shipping are They were 78.80 cents/pound and 78.68 cents/pound respectively. The traders raised the price slightly, which was obviously slower than the ex-factory price of domestic ginners. However, Chinese buyers made inquiries about Indian cotton in December/January. Not enthusiastic, but more cautious when placing orders. Although the quotations for S-6 in January and February are lower than EMOTSM and SM black cotton at 4-4.5 cents/lb and 8.8-9 cents/lb respectively, the reasons are summarized as follows. ：
First of all, due to the significant delay in the acquisition of Indian seed cotton and the rising cotton price, there is great uncertainty in the cotton sorting, shipment and delivery. Even if the ginner gives priority to the export contract, it is possible There are repeated entanglements on price, so you need to be careful when signing spot or near-month contracts for Indian cotton. You are worried about the situation of “distant water will not quench the near thirst”. Chinese buyers require either spot goods at the port or shipping dates in February and beyond. cotton.
Secondly, some domestic cotton companies have reported that in recent years, the proportion of cotton varieties planted in India with high yield, high clothing content and low quality has increased significantly, especially the strong indicators have declined, and in December/January The spinnability of shipped S-6, J34, etc. is even lower than that of domestically produced cotton in my country. Some Indian ginners also expect customers who spin high-count yarns and combed yarns to delay shipment and delivery for 15-30 days, waiting for high-quality High-grade mid-term flowers are on the market in large quantities.
Once again, the actual demand of Indian cotton and my country’s cotton import enterprises is “out of alignment.” Considering that my country will still issue 894,000 tons of 1% tariff quota in 2017 as promised after joining the WTO, large and medium-sized fabric factories and traders plan to “use good steel on the blade” and focus on purchasing 2016/17 US cotton and 2017 Australian cotton. (From October to December, a few fabric factories have “overdrafted” their quotas in advance and signed contracts to import US cotton with a shipping date of 1/2 months); and the cost of importing Indian cotton under full tariffs is obviously much higher than the affordability of fabric companies (currently The import cost of S-6 with full tariff is about 18,600 yuan/ton), so in the first half of 2017, no matter how cheap Indian cotton is, large factories do not need it (the quality and grade do not meet the requirements for spinning medium and high-count yarns), and small factories do not have quotas. Not coming. A textile enterprise with more than 100,000 spindles in Hebei said that if you do a careful calculation, Indian cotton has large impurities, high short staple rate (coat roller finishing), plus high “three-filament” content (requires manual picking of foreign fibers), and the grade is Mainly in M grade, the spinning cost is not much different from real estate cotton, imported Brazilian cotton, West African cotton and even American cotton, but the price of spinning yarn is more than 300 yuan/ton lower; in addition, most of the export order contracts are clear It is proposed to adopt American cotton, Australian cotton or Xinjiang cotton.
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