Textile and apparel exports decline, sales remain stable

1. Cotton market memories

　1. Domestic cotton prices are weakening. In December, the amount of new cotton on the market increased, supply pressure gradually increased, and cotton prices weakened. On December 21, the settlement price of the main contract of Zheng cotton futures was 14,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,280 yuan/ton or 7.9% from the previous month; the national cotton price B index was 15,788 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton from the previous month. 0.2%.

Recently, the U.S. dollar index has risen sharply, commodity prices have fallen, and international cotton prices have fallen accordingly. On November 21, 2016, the settlement price of the main ICE cotton futures contract was 70.13 cents/pound, a month-on-month decrease of 2.2 cents/pound, or 3%. The international cotton index (M) was 77.85 cents/pound, a month-on-month decrease of 2.6 cents/pound, or 3.2%. Calculated based on a 1% tariff, the RMB import cost was 13,836 yuan/ton (the exchange rate was calculated based on the customs tax rate of 6.8592, below (same), which is 1,952 yuan/ton lower than the national cotton price B index (representing the level 3 price of white cotton in the mainland).

　2. Foreign cotton and cotton yarn prices are relatively stable. On December 20, the domestic cotton price (S-6) in India was 72.69 cents/pound, a month-on-month decrease of 2.03 cents/pound, or 2.7%. Calculated based on a 1% tariff, the import cost in RMB is 12,945 yuan/ton, which is lower than the national cotton price. Price B index is 2,889 yuan/ton lower; Pakistan’s domestic cotton price (Karachi Cotton Association standard grade) is 73.20 cents/pound, up 2.96 cents/pound month-on-month, or 4.2%. Calculated based on 1% tariff, the import cost is 13,133 yuan in RMB. / ton, which is 2801 yuan / ton lower than the national cotton price B index.

From December 13 to 16, 2016, the weekly average price of domestic 32-count carded pure cotton yarn was 23,196 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 321 yuan/ton, or 1.4%; Indian domestic 30-count The weekly average price of carded cotton yarn is 2.6 US dollars/kg, down 0.1/kg month-on-month, and the import cost is 21,996 yuan/ton in RMB, which is 1,200 yuan/ton lower than the domestic 32-count carded cotton yarn; Pakistan’s domestic 30 The weekly average price of pure carded cotton yarn is 2.95 US dollars/kg, up 0.11/kg from the previous month. The import cost is 24,903 yuan/ton in RMB, which is 1,707 yuan/ton higher than the domestic 32-count carded pure cotton yarn.

　Cotton imports in March and November were 55,000 tons. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, my country imported 55,000 tons of cotton in November 2016, an increase of 14,000 tons or 33% from the previous month; a year-on-year decrease of 29,000 tons or 34.7%. From January to November 2016, my country imported a total of 752,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 534,000 tons, or 41.3%. From September 2016 to November 2016, my country imported a total of 157,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 20,000 tons, or 11.4%.

　4. Exports of fabric workwear declined slightly. New statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China show that in November 2016, my country’s fabric workwear exports were US$21.62 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.76% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.63%. Among them, the export value of fabric products (including fabric yarn, fabrics and products) was US$9.03 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.18%; the export value of workwear (including work clothes and clothing accessories) was US$12.59 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.41%.

2. Summary of domestic and foreign macroeconomic environment

　1. The economic environment is improving. The U.S. Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing PMI in November was 53.2, higher than expected and the largest increase since June this year. The final value of the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI for the same period was 54.1, which was also higher than expected, with the new orders index hitting the highest level since March 2015. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index in the United States climbed to 98 in December, which was higher than the final value of 93.8 in November and expected, hitting a new high since January 2015.

Employment numbers in the European Union and the Eurozone maintained an upward trend, but were lower than expected. Data from Eurostat show that in the third quarter of this year, employment in the Eurozone and the EU both increased by 0.2% month-on-month. In the third quarter of this year, employment in the EU increased by 1.1% year-on-year, and employment in the Eurozone increased by 1.2% year-on-year. Italy’s referendum on amending the constitution failed, triggering market concerns about the outbreak of Italian banking industry and European economic risks. A report from the Bank of Japan showed that the estimated prosperity index for large manufacturing industries increased significantly in the December quarter, hitting a high level since December 2015.

　2. The domestic economy is stable and improving. In November, major domestic economic data continued to pick up, but the recovery momentum was still weak. In November 2016, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 51.7%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and a continuous upward trend. Production index and new orders index reboundedTo be obvious. In November 2016, the added value of industries above designated size actually increased by 6.2% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point faster than in October. From January to November, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.0% year-on-year.

In November 2016, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 10.8% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points faster than the previous month, and 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month. Online retail sales increased by 26.2% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points faster than last month and 6.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From January to November, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as that from January to October.

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