The prices of polyester and nylon industry chains have entered sideways consolidation after a sharp rise
The skyrocketing prices in the polyester and nylon industrial chain are mostly caused by their raw materials, and are then transmitted to downstream. The viscose industry chain is separated from the crude oil market, and the price increase is mostly due to the optimization of the supply and demand structure of the viscose staple fiber industry. In the early stage, everything was ready, but it lacked the fuse to pull the price up. In December, due to environmental rectification in the industry, some manufacturers in Shandong stopped operations. Later, the haze in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area intensified, and maintenance and production restrictions further spread to northern Jiangsu, Henan, and Hebei.
The supply of industry starts has further shrunk. At the same time, major highways in Shandong, Tianjin, Beijing and other places have been blocked to varying degrees, exacerbating supply difficulties. Viscose staple fiber has started to rise since this week, and has risen by nearly 1,000 compared with the previous low. Its growth rate is even faster than that in July this year. This strong rise was long overdue, but it also exceeded the expectations of many people in the industry. Recently, the prices of polyester and nylon industry chains have entered sideways consolidation after a sharp increase. Some market participants are worried about the nascent viscose market.
As early as November, some medium and large orders have been traded at 15,000 yuan/ton in the industry, and many manufacturers have also achieved over-signing, but the market has not started yet, given that there is still a long time before the Spring Festival. Today, the fundamentals of downstream terminals are not supported by favorable conditions, and manufacturers are cautious. In December, many products such as polyester and nylon were very bullish. After some previews in the downstream, viscose staple fibers with less foam were able to withstand the changes.
The current average order level in the viscose industry is around 20 days. The mainstream over-booking in the industry is at the mid-to-early 1 level. The over-booking is in mid-to-late January. A very few mainstream manufacturers in Xinjiang have over-booked to 2 moon. And as prices rise, many downstream customers who have not yet had time to plan for annual goods continue to increase their purchases, further amplifying the over-signing volume in the industry.
First, the financial attributes of viscose are relatively weak compared to other chemical fiber products. Although the attention of over-the-counter funds has increased in recent years, it is still at a low level. Secondly, the industry has maintained good fundamentals in the past two years. , and there will still be little new production capacity next year, and the industry’s supply and demand will basically maintain a weak balance. Once the balance tilts, the industry will explode.
In summary, environmental protection issues have been a long-term problem for the viscose industry due to the market conditions brought about by this round of haze, and it coincides with downstream stocking up for the year ahead. Generally speaking, prices may continue to surge ahead. And the upward trend will be maintained in the first quarter of next year.
There are 50 cities across the country with hourly air quality concentrations reaching severe or above levels of pollution, and a total of 11 cities with severe pollution.
Under such circumstances, the Ministry of Environmental Protection was “angry”! Subsequently, a government-led nationwide anti-haze campaign began again. The Chinese Environmental Monitoring Expert Group frankly stated: The current governance effectiveness , there is still a gap between the public’s expectations and requirements. Chai Fahe, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences, believes that winter pollution prevention and control measures such as loose coal must continue to be strengthened.
Now, the north has begun to strictly enforce environmental protection again! I still remember that during the Beijing military parade, Tangshan Sanyou Viscose Factory was asked to stop production! There is a certain pollution problem in the viscose production line. Recently, Many viscose companies in the north were ordered to suspend or reduce production due to environmental pressure, resulting in a sudden drop in viscose supply on the market!
Due to changes in the supply side of the market, quotations will change immediately. Viscose staple fiber has started to rise since this week, and has risen by nearly 1,000 compared with the previous low. Its growth rate is even faster than that in July this year. This strong rise was long overdue, but it also exceeded the expectations of many people in the industry.
A simple logic is: the haze has caused the country to focus on environmental protection, viscose factories have been restricted in production, and prices have risen! The market caused by this round of haze, environmental protection issues are viscose The glue industry has been facing long-term problems, and it coincides with the downstream stocking up for the year ahead. Overall, prices may continue to surge ahead and maintain an upward trend in the first quarter of next year.
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