Cotton, polyester staple fiber and other raw materials will drive the entire textile and clothing industry chain forward

Judging from the survey, the current mentality of cotton enterprises in Xinjiang is quite different. Some ginners are stepping up sales and striving to achieve “double knot zero” by the end of February 2017; The cotton resources (including machine-picked cotton) of “Double 28”, “Double 2” and “Double 30” are tightly held tight, and there is little enthusiasm for moving warehouses to the mainland in the short term and selling them at quotations. They are waiting for the domestic cotton price to drop after March 2017. The opportunity to soar into the sky has arrived. Regarding cotton prices in 2016/17, some institutions and cotton companies believe that the probability of exceeding 17,000 yuan/ton and 18,000 yuan/ton is relatively high.

Cotton prices rose steadily in November, once exceeding a high of 16,021 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic cotton market has finally stabilized. As of the 19th, the “Double 29” and “Double 30” prices for spot platform delivery in Xinjiang were 16,000-16,200 yuan/ton, and some actual transaction prices are negotiable. The delivery price of machine-picked cotton at the platform in Xinjiang is “Double 28” at 15,500-15,600 yuan/ton. In particular, the recent disbursement of subsidies for cotton exports from Xinjiang has brought good news to cotton exports from Xinjiang. As of the 19th, the price of 3128-grade large bales of cotton in the Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin was 15,700-15,800 yuan/ton, and the price of small bales was 14,500-15,300 yuan/ton. The market fluctuated slightly and was overall stable.

Judging from feedback from relevant government departments, research institutions and enterprises, it is a consensus that domestic cotton supply and demand will be “tightly balanced” in 2016/17, but to what extent is “tight”? China’s cotton balance account How to calculate? For supply, it is relatively simple to estimate:

1. Output: Everyone has a good idea. This is because with the progress of cotton purchase, sorting and public inspection, the error in the estimate of domestic cotton output in 2016 is getting smaller and smaller, 4.7-4.8 million The output range of tons has also been gradually recognized and used by the industry.

2. Import: There is no need to speculate on the cotton import quota in 2017. There is only 894,000 tons of 1% tariff quota. The expectations for consolidation of trade and additional issuance of sliding tariff quotas have been shattered, even if calculated based on large import volume. , the total foreign cotton imports in 2016/17 will not exceed 1.2 million tons (from January to October 2016, my country imported a total of 696,300 tons of cotton, of which 41,300 tons were imported in October. Therefore, as of the end of September, the remaining 2016 quota is about 30 million tons).

3. Rotation of cotton reserves: According to announcements from the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, there will be no rotation of cotton reserves during the launch period of this year (until the end of February next year). The rotation of cotton reserves in 2017 will be Starting from March 6, the deadline is tentatively set at the end of August. The daily listed sales quantity is temporarily arranged at 30,000 tons. Considering that unsold sales may occur in the early stage, if the daily transaction volume is 20,000 tons, the transaction volume will be calculated. The resource amount is about 2.5-2.6 million tons (the unsold rate is estimated to be less than 35%), so the total available supply is 470+120+250=8.4 million tons.

Domestic cotton supply may exceed demand by 500,000-600,000 tons in 2016/17 (if the reserve cotton auction is popular and the transaction volume may reach 3 million tons, the supply will exceed demand by nearly 1 million tons), but considering The quality and spinnability of real estate cotton this year are low; the overall breaking strength, length, and horse value of hand-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang are unsatisfactory, and the quality of cotton coming out of reserve is uncertain, so high-grade and high-quality Xinjiang cotton may There is a chance of rebound after May.

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