The purchase of seed cotton has basically ended, and the sales of Xinjiang cotton in the mainland are obviously lagging behind
This year’s cotton output in Xinjiang has increased significantly compared with last year. Judging from the current situation, it is not a big problem to predict that Xinjiang’s total output will reach 3.8 million tons this year. Recently, the sales progress of cotton enterprises has accelerated. Due to the sharp fall in Zheng cotton prices, the spot price of Xinjiang cotton has also begun to relax. The spot quotations of lint cotton in Xinjiang have been reduced by 150-200 yuan/ton. The “Double 28” hand-picked cotton wool in Aksu and Bachu supervision warehouses The heavy quotation has dropped to 15,200-15,500 yuan/ton, and the gross weight quotation of “double 29/double 30” hand-picked cotton has dropped to about 15,800 yuan/ton.
At present, the sales progress of most cotton enterprises has reached more than 40-50%. The sales progress of Xinjiang Corps enterprises is much faster than that of local enterprises. The sales progress of some divisions has reached more than 80%, but the amount of cotton exported from Xinjiang accounts for The yield is relatively small. December is the peak period for foreign cotton imports. It is estimated that the import volume in December will be more than 100,000 tons. In other December, Xinjiang cotton is estimated to be shipped 400,000-500,000 tons. Together with the local cotton, it is estimated that there will be no shortage in the mainland market in December. For cotton, the spot price is easy to fall but difficult to rise.
The amount of other warehouse receipts + effective forecast warehouse receipts is relatively large, totaling 133,000 tons of cotton, while 1701 has a unilateral position of 81,000 tons, so the warehouse receipts put great pressure on the market. The main contract of Zheng cotton has continuously fallen below the 40-day moving average and the 60-day moving average, and the overall trend is still volatile and bearish. However, Zheng cotton has begun a technical rebound after falling sharply for two consecutive days. It is estimated that it will still face technical adjustments in the short term. It is recommended to open short positions on rallies. Pay attention to the overall trend of the product.
The purchase of seed cotton in southern Xinjiang has basically ended. The person in charge of a cotton company in Aksu said that their factory officially stopped harvesting today, and there are still more than 300,000 kilograms of seed cotton to be sorted, which is expected to be completed this week. According to him, currently only a few cotton companies in the Aksu region are still purchasing, and the price of seed cotton is 7.15-7.35 yuan/kg (clothing content 38-39%), which is the same as yesterday. At present, the quality of seed cotton continues to decline, with mixed grades and high moisture regain accounting for the majority.
“The cost is still rising, generally reaching 16,000 yuan/ton.” The person in charge of a cotton company in Kashgar said that because the price of seed cotton has not fallen recently, but the price of cottonseed has dropped slightly, the cost of lint has increased. According to feedback, there are two reasons for the decline in cotton seeds: the recent haze and rainy weather in the mainland, highway closures, and mainland oil mills have suspended the purchase of cotton seeds in Xinjiang, resulting in Xinjiang cotton seeds that can only be digested in Xinjiang. Second, the cotton meal market has fallen slightly recently, and some oil mills have become more wait-and-see and insist on buying raw materials as they are used.
The sales of Xinjiang cotton in the mainland have been significantly lagging recently. A local cotton merchant said that in the middle of this month, his company had two batches of hand-picked cotton and machine-picked cotton from Xinjiang entering warehouses in Shandong, Jiangsu, Hubei, Henan and other places in the Mainland. However, there have been few inquiries from downstream buyers in recent days. price. The cotton merchant said that if the one-time order exceeds 200 tons, he will immediately give a profit discount of 100 yuan/ton. If the one-time order is 500 tons, he will give a profit discount of 200 yuan/ton.
Other cotton merchants sell 3128-grade machine-picked cotton at a price of 16,200 yuan/ton, but said that the scope of negotiation can be in the range of 200 yuan/ton, which actually shows great sincerity in sales. According to the cotton merchant, the recent sluggish sales of cotton in Xinjiang have also brought some nervousness to everyone.
As we enter the end of the year, the amount of cotton transported inland from Xinjiang is increasing, and the “gap” between supply and demand in the mainland will soon be filled. Therefore, the closer we get to the Spring Festival, the more unwise it is for everyone to stock up. Coupled with the stagflation of Zheng cotton futures, there are obvious signs of decline. On December 21, Zheng Mian reduced its position and plummeted, and the bulls collapsed. Affected by this, Xinjiang cotton companies and merchants accelerated the transfer of cotton to the mainland and sold it at a slight increase in price. As one market participant said, the bullish atmosphere in the market is diminishing, and a negative and sad atmosphere is taking shape. Cotton may see a decline in the near future.
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