Cotton prices in Xinjiang have dropped overtly and covertly, and cotton seed prices may go lower
It is understood that the quotations of kupi cotton under supervision in Xinjiang have shown signs of loosening and correction in the past two days, although the quotations of ginners and cotton merchants still remain at The level of one week ago, but the actual profit margin has been adjusted from “no profit” or 50-100 yuan/ton to about 200 yuan/ton. Among them, the gross weight delivery price of “Double 28″ hand-picked cotton is 15,400-15,600 yuan/ton. The wool weight of 29” hand-picked cotton is 15,700-15,900 yuan/ton. Except for cotton with high color grade, high horse value and low impurity, there are still some inquiries and transactions, “3127, 3128” grade (breakage specific strength is lower than 27CN, horse value is lower than 4.8), which is almost impossible to transact.
Compared with hand-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang, the shipment situation of machine-picked cotton in northern Xinjiang is even less ideal. On the one hand, some cotton finishing companies insist on not selling “Double 29, Double 30” lint cotton below 16,000 yuan/ton; on the other hand, cotton companies are not very interested in hedging on the Zheng Cotton CF1705 contract, and the “relocation” encountered transportation problems. . A cotton sorting company in Kuitun said that the CF1705 contract has fluctuated widely around 16,000 yuan/ton in the past two days. Considering that the transportation cost out of Xinjiang is 400-500 yuan/ton (deducting the 500 yuan/ton transportation subsidy out of Xinjiang), 6 months The financial cost is about 600 yuan/ton. The transaction price of the May contract hedging “3128” standard grade is less than 15,000 yuan/ton (official), which is only 15,300-15,400 yuan/ton equivalent to the gross weight.
Since late November, seed cotton harvesting in Northern Xinjiang has ended in all directions, and acquisitions have gradually Towards the end, cotton sorting and warehousing have also reached the post-sprint stage, and the annual acquisition drama has begun to come to an end. However, in sharp contrast to the deserted cotton market, the cotton seed market has made breakthroughs “again and again, and again and again”. The ginner According to expectations, cottonseed sales are booming.
November 29-30, Shihezi, Kuitun, Shawan and other places The transaction price of wool cottonseed has risen to 2.67-2.70 yuan/kg, and cottonseed with less impurities and high maturity is 2.70 yuan/kg. This is mainly due to the rush to buy high-grade oil factories, linters factories and middlemen in Hebei, Shandong, and Jiangsu, which has led to cotton enterprises Sales expectations have been raised repeatedly. It is worth noting that international oil prices and commodity futures fell across the board on the 29th. Black commodities (including rebar, coking coal, coke, etc.) plummeted. Cotton oil, cotton meal and other cotton by-products faced great correction pressure, and the rush to harvest cotton seeds was likely to be trapped. live.
Ginning mills in Shihezi and other places reported that due to the relatively high price of cotton seeds, the comprehensive cost of cotton picked by the “Double 29 and Double 30” machines currently in the warehouse is less than 15,500 yuan/ton. Cotton companies are undecided on whether to settle for clearance sales in December or to bet on the sharp rise in cotton prices after March next year, waiting for further guidance from Zheng Qi’s “wind vane”.
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