Cotton prices have slowed down, but the market outlook remains promising
After a periodic increase, the current price difference between cotton by-products and similar products has shrunk severely, and is even at a disadvantage. The current price difference between cotton oil and first-grade soybean oil is about 200 yuan/ton, while the price difference between cotton oil and soybean oil in the same period last year was about 700 yuan/ton, and the five-year average price difference is about 960 yuan/ton; cotton meal has increased significantly recently, and soybean meal The price difference has narrowed significantly, with a difference of only 100-300 yuan/ton, which is significantly lower than the normal price difference. As the price difference advantage of cotton byproducts dissipates, demand in the middle and lower reaches is suppressed, which delays the further rise in cotton byproduct prices. However, due to the tight supply of domestic cotton by-products, the market outlook is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall.
On November 29, cottonseed prices in various parts of the country were stable and fluctuated within a narrow range. At present, cotton hulls and cotton linters have been under pressure and have been pulled back. Oil mills have adjusted their profits and are cautious about purchasing high-priced cotton seeds. Some manufacturers still have a price-lowering mentality, causing some cotton seed prices to continue to fall that day.
Domestic cotton oil prices are mostly stagnating and stabilizing, but some are still rising. At present, the price difference between cotton oil and soybean oil has narrowed, and the prices of other oils such as soybean oil and palm oil have fallen, which has affected the increase in cotton oil prices. However, cotton oil inventories are still tight, oil mills are still willing to support oil prices, and shipping capacity is extremely tight this year. Packaging oil stocking has been started. Due to the favorable macro environment, the recent performance of bulk oils and fats is still firmly supported. It is estimated that cotton oil will be difficult to fall in the short term. The overall trend may still gradually rise.
Domestic cotton meal prices continue to rise. Due to the strict inspection of overloading this year, the tightness of transportation capacity is unprecedented. Feeding companies are preparing for the holiday in advance. The supply of soybean meal from oil plants will continue to be tight. It is difficult for soybean meal to fall. The market outlook will still be volatile and trend upward, providing support for the cotton meal market.
Domestic cotton linters prices are mostly stable, with some continuing to fall. At present, the price of downstream products is sluggish, and affected by environmental issues, some refined cotton factories have also shut down and have spot goods. Buyers are still cautious when purchasing high-priced linters, and they still buy them as they go. There is basically no transaction of high-priced cotton linters, which makes some individual prices that day Oil mills continue to lower cotton linters sales quotations.
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