Orders from foreign trade companies rebounded, continuing the positive trend in the fourth quarter

The fourth quarter should continue the gradual stabilization and improvement trend of the first three quarters. However, it should also be pointed out that there is currently no obvious and solid rebound momentum, but the extent of negative growth is gradually narrowing.

“Our orders are fully booked, and we are overloaded before the Spring Festival.” On November 8, Fang Guobao, general manager of Zhejiang Lingxiu Industrial Co., Ltd., which is engaged in the import and export of fabrics, told the 21st Century Economic reporter. He said that in July and August, companies still felt that the situation was uncertain, but at the end of September, orders began to improve.

Not only that, the order status of many of Fang Guobao’s peers is also good.

Spokespersons from the General Administration of Customs and the Ministry of Commerce have also stated in public recently that the foreign trade situation has obvious signs of stabilization, and the trend of stabilization and improvement has not changed. Judging from the import and export data for the first ten months released by the General Administration of Customs on November 8, import and export in the first ten months fell by 1.9% year-on-year, the same rate of decline as the first three quarters, with exports and imports falling by 2% and 1.8% respectively. The total import and export value fell by 0.6% in October. Among them, exports decreased by 3.2%, while imports increased by 3.2%. They have achieved growth for three consecutive months since August, and the trade surplus narrowed by 16.8%.

Analysts interviewed by reporters from the 21st Century Business Herald believe that the foreign trade situation in the first ten months is basically in line with the internal and external environment of China’s foreign trade. There are many challenging factors in the complex foreign trade situation, but the fourth quarter will It is more likely that the trend will stabilize and improve for the third consecutive quarter.

There are challenges in complex situations

“The import and export situation in the first ten months is basically in line with the current internal and external environment of China’s foreign trade. It should be said that the complexity of foreign trade still exists, and there will be more challenging factors.” Business Institute expert Bai Ming told reporters.

In terms of RMB, in the first ten months, single-month imports have achieved positive growth for the third month since August, while exports have declined for two consecutive months.

In this regard, some analysts believe that the continued rebound in imports shows that the domestic economic situation is “stable and improving” and that domestic demand is picking up.

Deng Haiqing, chief economist of Jiuzhou Securities, said that imports have shown positive growth for three consecutive months, which continues to verify that the “L-shaped” turning point of China’s economy has passed, and is consistent with the rebound in indicators such as the PMI index. At the same time, inventory replenishment and price recovery are the keys to continued growth in domestic demand.

Bai Ming told reporters that the rebound in imports is affected by many factors. For example, depressed commodity prices will lead to an increase in imports. Although the share of consolidated trade is shrinking, its impact is mainly in the early stage. In the past two months, imports and exports of consolidated trade have declined slightly, which has also had a positive effect on the recovery of imports. The steady growth of the domestic economy also played a positive role.

As for exports, many analysts believe that on the one hand, the export base was relatively high in the same period last year; on the other hand, although exports are declining, the rate of decline has been narrowing. At present, the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is conducive to the improvement of short-term exports.

It is worth noting that in the first ten months, the trade volume of major markets such as the European Union and Japan has rebounded to varying degrees.

Data released by the General Administration of Customs shows that in the first ten months, my country’s imports and exports to trading partners such as the EU, ASEAN, and Japan increased, while imports and exports to the United States declined. Among them, the total value of China-EU trade increased by 2.3%, and both imports and exports showed positive growth. The total trade value between China and ASEAN was 2.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.1%. The total trade value between China and Japan was 1.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.2%. The total value of Sino-US trade was 2.75 trillion yuan, down 3.2%.

“In the past two years, China’s trade volume with the EU and Japan has been declining for most of the time.” Li Jian, director of the Foreign Trade Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.

Judging from the data, the European and American markets have performed well. Li Jian pointed out that in the current international market, the U.S. economic recovery is slowing down, and the European economy is weak.Japan’s economy continues to be sluggish, but the IMF predicts that Japan’s economic growth this year will still be the same as last year.

In addition, China has also strengthened cooperation with Russia. On October 20, Vice Premier Wang Yang and the Russian side co-chaired the second meeting of the Local Cooperation Council for Northeast China and the Russian Far East in Beijing to promote more results in the development cooperation between China and the Russian Far East.

Minister of Commerce Gao Hucheng also attended the 11th China-Japan-ROK Economic and Trade Ministers’ Meeting on October 29, which mainly focused on implementing the economic and trade results of the G20 Summit and developing new areas and new areas of practical economic and trade cooperation among the three countries. Initiatives and regional, multilateral economic and trade issues and other issues had an in-depth exchange of views and reached corresponding consensus.

The most likely continuous trend in the fourth quarter

At present, “stabilizing and improving” has become a frequently occurring adjective in the foreign trade situation. Although there is great downward pressure, new spokespersons from the General Administration of Customs and the Ministry of Commerce have spoken in public, saying that the trend of foreign trade stabilizing and improving has not changed.

Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Shen Danyang said at the regular press conference on October 18 that with the gradual emergence of national policies and measures to promote the stabilization and improvement of foreign trade, the foreign trade structure is further Optimization, new development momentum is gathering, and China’s foreign trade development remains stable and positive.

But he also mentioned that this year will be a year when trade will face difficulties, and we must have a clear understanding of the development pattern of foreign trade this year. The difficulties faced by foreign trade now will not be short-term. The goal of stabilizing foreign trade in 2020 will require more arduous efforts.

The “China’s Foreign Trade Situation Report (Autumn 2016)” recently released by the Ministry of Commerce made a forecast and analysis of the import and export situation in the fourth quarter. This report pointed out that the current situation facing China’s foreign trade development is still complex and severe. Considering that the monthly import and export base after September 2015 is generally high, the downward pressure on import and export in the fourth quarter is still relatively large.

The report pointed out that the fourth quarter is the peak season for foreign trade, and shipments will be concentrated on Christmas and New Year’s Day. Exports in the fourth quarter are expected to continue to stabilize and improve. In terms of imports, the overall prices of major imported products have rebounded, which has definitely supported imports. However, affected by factors such as the continued decline in trade imports, the overall import growth rate in the fourth quarter will still be at a low level. Taking all factors into consideration, it is estimated that China’s imports and exports are expected to stabilize and improve in 2016, with the foreign trade structure further optimized and the quality and efficiency of progress continuously improved.

Li Jian told reporters that the fourth quarter should continue the gradual stabilization and improvement trend of the first three quarters. However, it should also be pointed out that there is currently no obvious and solid rebound momentum, but the extent of negative growth is gradually narrowing.

In this regard, Bai Ming analyzed that since the beginning of this year, the foreign trade situation has generally shown a zigzag trajectory and cannot form a rebound trend in a continuous period of time. On the one hand, the economic situation is still severe and complex. Even if there is recovery, the spillover effect will not be obvious in the short term. In this case, trade frictions are also increasing.

For example, in the first three quarters, there were 38 cases of trade frictions involving steel exports, with the amount involved reaching US$64.16.

Bai Ming pointed out that next month, it will be 15 years since China joined the WTO. This will be related to the issue of China’s market economy status and is also one of the factors that may cause twists and turns in foreign trade in the fourth quarter.

Many analysts believe that in the fourth quarter, there are many positive factors for foreign trade. For example, starting from November 1, the export tax rebate rate for more than 400 products has been increased to 17%. With the support of the G20, the ratification and entry into force of the Trade Facilitation Agreement is also expected to be accelerated. At the same time, the implementation plans for the seven new free trade zones established this year have not yet been announced, but they will also be one of the positive factors for foreign trade.

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