Foreign trade moves out of the “L-shape” and the decline gradually narrows

Data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 8th showed that in October, my country’s total import and export value was 2.05 trillion yuan, down 0.6% from the same period last year. Among them, exports were 1.19 trillion yuan, down 3.2%; imports were 860.6 billion yuan, up 3.2%; the trade surplus was 325.25 billion yuan, narrowed by 16.8%.

In the first 10 months of this year, my country’s total import and export value was 19.56 trillion yuan, down 1.9% from the same period last year. This data was the same as the year-on-year decrease from January to September.

The decline gradually narrowed

Statistics show that since the beginning of this year, foreign trade has been on the track of recovery, showing a gradual and gradual narrowing trend. The cumulative year-on-year decline in total import and export volume has gradually narrowed to -12.6% from -12.6% in the first two months. 5.9%, -4.4%, -3.2%, -3.3%, -3% and -1.8%, and remained stable at -1.9% in the first 9 and 10 months.

Judging from the single-month export data, there is also a bottoming trend. From January to October this year, year-on-year export growth rates were -6.6%, -20.6%, 18.7%, 4.1%, 1.2%, 1.3%, 2.9%, 5.9%, -5.6% and -3.2% respectively.

“It should be seen that stabilizing foreign trade has achieved results. In China’s foreign trade, we have seen an L-shaped trend, with no further decline, and there is a possibility of recovery in the next two months.” Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce Bai Ming, deputy director of the Institute of International Markets, told reporters that although the foreign trade export leading index fell slightly in October, the leading indexes in the previous months pointed to a rebound. Moreover, the just-released Canton Fair data also delivered a good result of “export turnover rebounded by 3.2%.”

Since July, my country’s foreign trade export leading index has rebounded month-on-month for three consecutive months. The rebound to 35.8 in September, the month after the third quarter, also indicates that export pressure is expected to ease in the fourth quarter. In January, my country’s foreign trade export leading index was only 31.7.

As for the reasons for the rebound in imports, Bai Ming believes that the first is the depreciation of the RMB. In terms of US dollars, imports are still falling; secondly, commodity prices have rebounded significantly and prices have rebounded; thirdly, a series of domestic policies to stabilize growth have spillover effects on the international market.

Organizing trade is still difficult

“However, there is still a long way to go to achieve the goal of stabilizing and improving foreign trade, and we cannot take it lightly.” Bai Ming said.

An obvious phenomenon is that the import and export of the customs extraordinary supervision zone, which was once an important driving force, has declined.

According to customs statistics, in the first 10 months, the import and export volume under extraordinary customs supervision, which accounted for about 10% of my country’s total foreign trade value, fell by 2.9% year-on-year. Among them, exports fell by 5.8% and imports fell by 1.4%.

“Since some bonded sorting trade is concentrated in the customs special supervision area, the decline in sorting trade is part of the reason.” In Bai Ming’s view, my country’s sorting trade output is mainly As labor-intensive products, in the context of changes in the international industrial structure, a lot of finishing trade is shifting to Southeast Asia, where costs are lower. In the special customs supervision area, there are more investment attractions for trade consolidation, so this also reflects that it is still difficult to consolidate trade.

Data shows that in the first 10 months, my country’s total trade import and export was 5.84 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.7%, accounting for 29.9% of the total foreign trade value, and a decrease of 1.5% from the same period last year. Among them, exports fell by 6.3%, imports fell by 7.3%, and the surplus under consolidated trade narrowed by 5%.

Minsheng Macro’s research report commented that from the perspective of trade methods, the import growth rates of incoming material sorting and outgoing material sorting dropped sharply, to -6.8% and -54.6% respectively, and import sorting trade continued to weaken. .

“However, it should be noted that in the consolidation of trade, the decline in imports is greater, which is not synchronized with the decline in exports. This is because more raw materials are purchased domestically.” Bai Ming explain.

Another phenomenon is that while the exports of private enterprises continue to grow, the exports of state-owned enterprises have declined significantly.

In the first 10 months, the import and export of private enterprises bucked the trend and increased by 3.8%, accounting for 38.5% of the total foreign trade value, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the same period last year; the import and export of state-owned enterprises fell by 9.1%, accounting for 38.5% of the total foreign trade value. 15.4% of the total foreign trade value.

Bai Ming said that this aspect shows that private enterprises are dynamic, agile and can easily adapt to changes in the international market. For example, in the export of clothing, shoes and hats, it is difficult for state-owned enterprises to catch up with private enterprises. However, state-owned enterprises have a dominant advantage in the export of high-end equipment such as high-speed rail and nuclear power. Therefore, in the future, state-owned enterprises should focus on giving full play to their own strengths and unique advantages in high-end decoration.��We should take the lead in manufacturing exports, and in labor-intensive products, private enterprises should take greater advantage.

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