Foreign trade situation report released: Three factors promote export stabilization and improvement
On November 2, the General Affairs Department of the Ministry of Commerce and the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation jointly released the “China’s Foreign Trade Situation Report (Autumn 2016)” (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”). It is believed that in the first three quarters of 2016, my country’s overall foreign trade Showing a trend of stabilization and improvement, new momentum for foreign trade development is accumulating, and the trade structure is further optimized. The “Report” estimates that based on various factors, my country’s import and export is expected to stabilize and improve throughout 2016. In 2017, the situation faced by my country’s foreign trade development is still severe and complex, with many unstable and uncertain factors. At the same time, my country’s foreign trade is at a critical stage of accelerating structural adjustment and the continuous transformation of new and old driving forces. The long-term positive fundamentals have not changed. .
Three factors promote export stabilization and improvement
The “Report” pointed out that since the beginning of this year, trade has been at a low period in the past 30 years, and my country’s foreign trade progress is facing Unprecedented pressure. Data show that in the first three quarters of this year, my country’s total import and export value in RMB terms was 17.53 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.9% from the same period in 2015. But at the same time, the decline in my country’s import and export in the first three quarters narrowed quarter by quarter. In RMB terms, imports and exports increased by 1.1% in the third quarter, 8.3 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points higher than those in the first and second quarters respectively.
Through analysis of the “Report”, it is believed that three major factors have contributed to the stabilization of imports and exports . First, in recent years, the Chinese government has introduced a series of policies and measures to support the stable growth of foreign trade and adjust the structure. They are highly targeted and valuable. The continuous release of policy effects has effectively reduced the burden on enterprises, enhanced their confidence, and stimulated the vitality of import and export enterprises. . Second, since 2016, my country’s economic operation has been generally stable, making progress while maintaining stability, and improving while maintaining stability. The export industry structure has been optimized, international competitiveness has been continuously improved, and domestic demand has rebounded, driving an increase in imports. Third, the overall level of international commodity prices has recovered moderately amid fluctuations, which has significantly boosted the growth of imports. Judging from monthly data, imports have achieved positive growth for two consecutive months in August and September.
The “Report” also emphasized that my country’s imports and exports in the first three quarters were still It shows the characteristics of continuous accumulation of new momentum for foreign trade, private enterprises becoming the main force in exports, and moving towards “optimal import and excellent export”. Among them, the progress of general trade is better than that of the whole, and the ability of my country’s foreign trade enterprises to independently explore the international market has been further enhanced. At the same time, the status of private enterprises in my country’s foreign trade development has further improved. In the first three quarters, my country’s private enterprises exported 4.68 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.3%, accounting for 46.5% of the total export value, exceeding the export proportions of foreign-invested enterprises and state-owned enterprises respectively, becoming The main force in exports. In addition, the export of some high-tech products grew rapidly, with exports of materials technology and aerospace technology products increasing by 10% and 12.3% respectively.
In addition, in the first three quarters, international bulk commodity imports continued to increase in volume and fall in price. It not only saves foreign exchange expenditures, but also helps enterprises reduce costs and increase efficiency. In addition, my country’s trade with traditional markets was clearly differentiated in the first three quarters. China-US bilateral trade fell by 3.3%, while China-Europe and China-Japan bilateral trade increased by 2.7% and 2.9% respectively. my country’s exports to some countries related to the “Belt and Road” have maintained good momentum. Growth momentum.
Further optimization of foreign trade structure
When predicting the foreign trade situation for the whole year of 2016, the “Report” believed that low economic growth in the fourth quarter will not happen. Changes have occurred, but the downward trend in trade remains severe. However, taking into account domestic and foreign factors, China’s import and export is still expected to stabilize and improve through unremitting efforts.
From the international situation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) new estimate Annual economic growth was 3.1%, 0.1 percentage points lower than in 2015, and below the long-term average of 3.7% for the fifth consecutive year. Insufficient effective demand in developed economies, slowing recovery, and rising trade protectionism, “reversal” and populist trends not only affect short-term economic growth, but also cause damage to long-term potential growth rates. The impact of Brexit continues to ferment, adding new uncertainties to the economy.
Judging from the domestic situation, the national economy has generally been operating smoothly and steadily in the first three quarters. There was progress and quality improvement while stability was achieved, which was better than expected. This is reflected in the continued upgrading of the industrial structure, continued improvement in the demand structure, better-than-expected employment, basically stable household consumption, overall moderate consumer prices, and steady growth in money and credit.
Based on this, the “Report” analysis pointed out that the current development of my country’s foreign trade is facing challenges The situation is still complex and severe, and considering that the monthly import and export bases after September 2015 are generally high, in the fourth quarter, the downward pressure on imports and exports is still great. ExporterOn the other hand, the fourth quarter is the peak season for foreign trade, and exports are expected to continue to stabilize and improve. In terms of imports, the overall prices of major imported products have rebounded, which has definitely supported imports. However, affected by factors such as the continued decline in trade imports, the overall import growth rate in the fourth quarter will still be low. Taking comprehensive considerations into account, it is estimated that my country’s import and export are still expected to stabilize and improve this year, with the foreign trade structure further optimized and the quality and efficiency of progress continuously improved. Not long ago, Assistant Minister of Commerce Zhang Ji specifically pointed out that the international environment and internal conditions for my country’s foreign trade development have undergone great changes. Exports are mainly affected by the continued sluggish international market demand and the weakening of the industry’s traditional competitive advantages, while imports are mainly affected by commodity prices. Affected by the decline and weakening momentum of domestic import demand, arduous efforts are still needed to achieve the goal of stabilizing and improving foreign trade throughout the year.
Li Jian, a researcher at the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, was interviewed by reporters He said that my country’s foreign trade goal of maintaining international market share without reducing it can be achieved this year. At present, the decline in foreign trade denominated in RMB is further narrowing. The scale of my country’s foreign trade this year is also likely to be the same as last year.
Cultivate new momentum for foreign trade development
When looking forward to my country’s foreign trade development prospects next year, the “Report” believes that the economic recovery is still fragile and the international trade pattern continues to be profound. There are many unfavorable factors such as the evolution, the rise of “reverse evolution”, and the deterioration of the international trade and investment environment.
It can be seen that the situation facing my country’s foreign trade development in 2017 is still severe and complex. , but it is also at a critical stage where the pace of structural adjustment is accelerating and new and old driving forces are continuously switching, and the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed. Accordingly, the “Report” points out that as policies related to stabilizing foreign trade growth and adjusting the structure continue to take effect, and the transformation and upgrading process of import and export enterprises accelerates, my country’s foreign trade market share is expected to remain basically stable in 2017, and its status as a major country in the import and export of goods will continue to be consolidated. Efficiency continues to improve and trade structure continues to be optimized. The “Report” believes that the new situation and new requirements faced by foreign trade development require efforts to accelerate the cultivation of new momentum for foreign trade development and strive to promote the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade.
When talking about the foreign trade situation in 2017, Li Jian pointed out that the overall situation next year is not optimistic, but some positive factors will still promote foreign trade to maintain a certain growth. He said that there is still a lot of work to be done to promote the stabilization and improvement of foreign trade. On the one hand, we must unswervingly implement the strategy of opening up to the outside world. By expanding opening up, we will promote domestic enterprises to increase their vitality and improve their level of participation in international division of labor and competition; on the other hand, we must promote the further optimization of the foreign trade commodity structure and trade development structure. Accelerate the transfer of some consolidation and trade projects along my country’s coast to the inland. By insisting on opening up to the outside world and insisting on innovation and progress, we have reached a higher level in participating in the international division of labor and competition.
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