Foreign trade situation report released: Three factors promote export stabilization and improvement

Last week (October 24-28), the price of seed cotton fell by an average of 0.4 yuan/kg, the cost of lint cotton dropped by 1,000 yuan/ton, and the sales quotation of lint cotton gradually declined. In addition, after nearly one month of consumption, the reserve cotton inventory is decreasing day by day. Some yarn mills need to replenish their stocks, and new cotton transactions have begun to increase. Large quantities are mainly shipped directly from Xinjiang, while small quantities are mostly delivered from inland warehouses. Since the launch of new cotton, domestic cotton has increased while international cotton prices have fallen. In particular, Indian cotton has experienced a larger decline. The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has expanded again. Imported yarn has once again squeezed domestic yarn prices. Cotton yarn sales have been difficult and prices have been low. The impact on cotton Rising prices create suppression. Domestic and foreign futures rebounded slightly. The national cotton price B index is 15,262 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 5 yuan/ton. Compared with the Zheng cotton futures CF1701 contract, the premium is 67 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 360 yuan/ton. Spot hedging and arbitrage opportunities are gradually emerging.

Futures. After a large amount of new cotton came on the market, because the price was more than 1,000 yuan/ton higher than the reserve cotton, sales were hindered, and futures prices did not dare to follow up. They could only fluctuate around the reserve cotton price. Zheng Cotton’s main force CF1701 closed at 15,195 yuan/ton last Friday. , a weekly increase of 355 yuan/ton, with 2,259,506 lots traded, a decrease of 97,336 lots, or 4.1%, and positions held at 380,938 lots, an increase of 21,780 lots, or 6.1%. The market fluctuated slightly, and the turnover of hands decreased. Some funds entered the market to build positions to gamble on the market outlook, and held positions Increase. As of the close of trading on October 28, the top 20 positions held 151,685 long positions, an increase of 7,717 hands from the previous week, 180,338 short positions, an increase of 7,869 hands from the previous week, and a net short position of 28,653 hands, an increase of 152 hands from the previous week. There are 645 buy positions, an increase of 645, and 4,643 sell hedging positions, with no change. As of October 28, there were 645 registered warehouse receipts, a weekly decrease of 30, and 243 valid forecasts, a weekly increase of 53. The sharp reduction in spot premium is beneficial to the registration of new cotton warehouse receipts. At present, new cotton warehouse receipts are still very few, and they are mainly from the mainland. Cotton, among the 44 new cotton warehouse receipts, there are only 4 Xinjiang cotton, and there are no warehouse receipts and forecasts in the 3 transfer warehouses in Xinjiang. As the price of Xinjiang new cotton drops, the spot premium shrinks, and the registered warehouse receipts will increase. This week’s rebound is expected to pull back under the pressure of previous highs and hedging short orders, but the space is limited. US market: Driven by the rise in peripheral agricultural products (000061), it has rebounded for three consecutive days. The December contract closed at 70.89 cents/pound last Friday, a weekly increase of 181 points. Low-price Indian cotton and sales data will create room for upside in the market. Suppress, there is a high probability of a correction after this week’s inertial upward surge.

　Spot aspect. Due to the fall in seed cotton prices in Xinjiang, the cost of lint cotton has dropped by about 1,000 yuan/ton. Coupled with the strong cotton seed prices, some companies have significantly lowered their quotations compared with the previous period. In addition, after one month of consumption, mainland yarn mills have not much reserve cotton inventory, and there is some rigid demand. The inventory was replenished and transactions began to increase. Due to the high price of new cotton and the high risk of holding goods, mainland trading companies rarely enter Xinjiang to purchase goods. Some finishing companies in Xinjiang began to move warehouses to the mainland in order to promote sales. Due to the small amount of warehouses moved, sales were faster after the price was lowered. Each enterprise has different acquisition costs, different funding sources and costs, and different inferences about the market outlook. New cotton quotations vary greatly, and the Xinjiang delivery price ranges from 15,300 to 16,300 yuan/ton gross weight. Due to different quality, the price of reserved cotton is basically between 14,500-15,500 yuan/ton. US cotton is 15,800-16,000 yuan/ton, Australian cotton is 16,400-16,800 yuan/ton, and India is gradually arriving, and the quotation should be 15,000-15,500 yuan/ton. According to the cotton price of 15,000 yuan/ton, the price of 32 pieces is 22,500 yuan/ton, and the price of 40 pieces is 23,500 yuan/ton. The price is already in a state of ensuring cash flow. Enterprises with high financial costs have already suffered losses. In the later stage, they need to pay attention to the linkage between internal and external yarn prices and cotton prices. In this state, any single-man advance will be difficult to last. The rise in new cotton prices in the early stage and the rise in Indian cotton starting in the first half of the year are examples.

New cotton acquisition. According to statistics, the national sorting volume has exceeded 1 million tons, and the public inspection volume is 950,000 tons, of which less than 20,000 tons are in the mainland. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized after a round of decline. Whether it can stabilize depends on the sales progress and price of lint cotton. The quality situation is obviously better than that of the previous year, but the quality in southern Xinjiang is still worse than that in northern Xinjiang.

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